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Bounce In Mortgage Activity Halts At Year-End

US DATA
  • MBA mortgage applications fell a cumulative -9.4% (SA) over the two weeks of data released today for the holiday period, comprising of a 1.4% increase for the week to Dec 22 before a 10.7% fall for Dec 29.
  • Refis have led the decline over that two-week period, falling -18.1% vs -5.4% for purchases, with the drop in refis following some very strong increases early in December.
  • The 30Y conforming mortgage rate lifted 5bps in the latest week to 6.76% but is off the 6.83% seen in mid-Dec from the prior update and is currently 114bp below the 7.9% peak from late Oct.
  • The spread to jumbo loans meanwhile has pulled back notably from -29bps to -10bps in a partial reversal of a particular relative tightening for the jumbo loan sector.

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