BP’s Scenarios See More Room for Oil and Gas: Argus

BP’s latest scenarios for oil and gas demand to 2050 show that, regardless of the speed of the energy transition, consumption will be higher at the mid-century stage than previously thought, Argus said.

• BP’s Energy Outlook focused on two extreme energy transition scenarios – the current trajectory and the net zero trajectory,
• BP’s projection for 2050 oil demand under the current trajectory is 76.8m b/d, above last year’s estimate of 75m b/d.
• Under the same net zero scenario, BP has raised its oil demand estimate for 2050 to 28.2m b/d, compared to 20m b/d previously.
• BP sees oil demand at 101.7m b/d under both scenarios for 2025. Under the current trajectory, oil will plateau before falling to 97.8m b/d in 2035, Under net zero, oil demand will fall to 94.7m b/d in 2030 and 80.2m b/d by 2035.
• BP said the single largest driver reducing oil consumption will be declining use of oil in road transportation.