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Bracing For BoT Monetary Policy Decision

THB

Topside momentum remains behind spot USD/THB, which reopened on a firmer footing today and has extended gains since. The rate last sits +0.132 at THB33.893, with participants assessing the odds of a BoT rate cut.

  • The Bank of Thailand will announce their monetary policy decision today. We stick with consensus in expecting the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged (see our preview for more colour), but 3 our of 22 economists in the Bloomberg survey look for a 25bp rate cut.
  • Elsewhere, the Office of Industrial Economics will publish manufacturing production index today. Later this week, focus will turn to BoP current account balance & trade balance (Thursday) as well as Markit M'fing PMI & business sentiment index (Friday).
  • The rate printed its best levels since mid-2017 today and is narrowing in on the THB34.000 figure. A break here would open up THB34.140, which capped gains on Jul 11, 2017. Bears look for a pullback under Sep 23 low of THB33.155, which would shift focus to the 50-DMA at THB33.021.
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