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BRAZIL: August IPCA Inflation Due At 1300BST

BRAZIL
  • Following the substantial 75bp increase in analyst 2024 year-end Selic rate expectations yesterday, USDBRL closed 0.26% lower at 5.5849. The Focus survey results added to various calls for rate hikes in Brazil, perhaps coming as soon as the Sept 18 Copom meeting. USDBRL bullish trend conditions remain intact and supports of note reside at 5.5262, the 50-day EMA and the key level at 5.3768, the Aug 19 low.
  • Today IPCA inflation data for August are expected at 1300BST(0800ET), with the market looking for the headline rate to fall back to 4.27% y/y, from 4.50% previously. In m/m terms, prices are expected to edge up by 0.01%, following a 0.38% gain in July.
    • Aug. IBGE Inflation IPCA YoY, est. 4.27%, prior 4.50%
    • Aug. IBGE Inflation IPCA MoM, est. 0.01%, prior 0.38%
  • JP Morgan expects core inflation to moderate in August. After a spike in July, they see the monthly change of core prices falling back within the target range, driven by a softening of core services, particularly labour-intensive services. Itaú also sees underlying services inflation decelerating to 5.8% (3mma saar), from 6.2% in July. The average of core measures monitored by the BCB will also likely decelerate, to 4.4% (3mma saar), from 4.6% in July.

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