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BRAZIL: Brazil fixed income has really moved.
- Generic 10YR LCY yield up to 12.08% yesterday from 9.9% a month ago.
- It seems to be driven by inflation concerns. Brazil 10 YR USD bond yield is up
just 50bps over the same period.
- Cumulative 10YR market-implied default probability has barely moved, although
still high at 37% reflecting a large primary fiscal deficit.
- 10YR breakeven is up 140 bps to 6.42% over the last month.
- Spot inflation is low at 2.8%, but the sharp rally in USDBRL (3.80) since
March poses a threat to price stability.