BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Rebounds With Improving Weather

UK Total retail sales rebounded in July, albeit with a still sluggish 0.5% Y/Y after -0.2% Y/Y in June.

• Similarly, Like-For-Like sales reversed part of June's fall as they increased 0.3% (vs 0.2% consensus, -0.5% prior).
• Whilst this is a value rather than volume series, the rebound in sales combined with other recent data including firmer than expected PMIs suggests growing demand in the economy, and potential upside risk for core goods inflation.
• Total retail sales remains above the 3-month average reading of 0.3% Y/Y but below the 12-month average growth of 1.4% Y/Y.
• The acceleration in total sales was driven by food sales growth accelerating after eight consecutive month's of softening, rising to 2.6% 3M Y/Y in the three months ending July (vs 1.1% prior) whilst Non-Food Sales declines eased to -1.7% 3M Y/Y (vs -2.9% prior).
• The trend in the ONS series and BRC-KPMG series indicates that the ONS series should also see sales edge up slightly in the next couple of months, due to in part the improving weather.
• Chief Executive of the BRC said "The late arrival of British sunshine led to a better month".
• Data covers 30 June - 27 July 2024.