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BRC-NielsenIQ: Shop Price Inflation Remains Lowest Since Oct'21

UK DATA
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BRC-NielsenIQ Shop Price inflation remained at 0.2% Y/Y in July for the second consecutive month (vs 0.0% consensus) keeping the print at its lowest level since October 2021, whilst Shop Price Inflation fell for the second successive month albeit at a slower pace on a monthly basis by 0.1% M/M (vs -0.2 prior).

  • The Non-Food component remains in deflation in Y/Y terms for the fourth consecutive month at -0.9% Y/Y, albeit slightly less than last month's -1.0% print. Meanwhile, Food Prices continued to disinflate to 2.3%Y/Y (vs 2.5% prior) - the fifteenth consecutive monthly fall and the lowest reading since November 2021.
  • On a monthly basis the food component rose 0.1% (vs -0.1% prior) - broadly in line with pre-pandemic averages for July, whilst the non-food component fell 0.2% again.
  • These data don't really change the picture ahead of Thursday's MPC policy decision - where markets are pricing close to a 50/50 chance of a 25bp cut or hold.
  • Survey period: 1 to 7 July 2024.
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BRC-NielsenIQ Shop Price inflation remained at 0.2% Y/Y in July for the second consecutive month (vs 0.0% consensus) keeping the print at its lowest level since October 2021, whilst Shop Price Inflation fell for the second successive month albeit at a slower pace on a monthly basis by 0.1% M/M (vs -0.2 prior).

  • The Non-Food component remains in deflation in Y/Y terms for the fourth consecutive month at -0.9% Y/Y, albeit slightly less than last month's -1.0% print. Meanwhile, Food Prices continued to disinflate to 2.3%Y/Y (vs 2.5% prior) - the fifteenth consecutive monthly fall and the lowest reading since November 2021.
  • On a monthly basis the food component rose 0.1% (vs -0.1% prior) - broadly in line with pre-pandemic averages for July, whilst the non-food component fell 0.2% again.
  • These data don't really change the picture ahead of Thursday's MPC policy decision - where markets are pricing close to a 50/50 chance of a 25bp cut or hold.
  • Survey period: 1 to 7 July 2024.