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Breach Of Mid-October Highs Places Immediate Focus On 50-day EMA

EURUSD
  • Lower long-end yields in the US and the associated greenback weakness is manifesting itself most notably against the Euro in G10 FX. EURUSD continues to grind higher and following the breach of the mid-October highs, the pair is now inching its way above 1.0650 in recent trade.
  • This is considered a bullish development and a confirmed break above the Oct 12 high is required to signal scope for a stronger correction. In the short-term, this places the focus on the 50-day EMA which intersects today at 1.0677, however, further out, 1.0737 and 1.0769 are levels of note.
  • On Tuesday, we get the October round of flash PMIs. In the Eurozone, the September composite print saw a small uptick from August but remained in contractionary territory at 47.2. This was led by a slight rebound in services, with manufacturing remaining at historically weak levels. Germany and France have showed the steepest declines in sentiment over the last months, with the Eurozone peripheries faring somewhat better.
  • Focus then shifts to the ECB, where consideration of the outlook for PEPP, reserve remuneration and the first rate cut should dominate. The ECB will likely indicate that the first of these is being discussed, the second may be addressed at a later date, while the third is not even up for discussion at this juncture.
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