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Break Through 82.00 Much Quicker Than 80.00

INR

Spot USD/INR has broken through 82.00 to fresh record lows. We were last at 82.29, +0.50% for the session so far. INR weakness continues on a NEER basis. The J.P Morgan INR NEER was down a further 0.47% on Thursday. The index is now 1.85% off late September highs.

  • USD/INR first got close to 82.00 in late September (28th), so resistance to fresh weakness has not lasted that long (a little over a week). In contrast we first probed above 80.00 near the middle of July but didn't make a definitive break above this level until the 22nd of September, see the chart below.
  • Implied vols are pushing higher, but not dramatically so. The 1 month is at 7.30%, below late September highs close to 8%.
  • The domestic data calendar is quiet until next Wednesday when IP and CPI figures print.

Fig 1: Spot USD/INR Trend

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Spot USD/INR has broken through 82.00 to fresh record lows. We were last at 82.29, +0.50% for the session so far. INR weakness continues on a NEER basis. The J.P Morgan INR NEER was down a further 0.47% on Thursday. The index is now 1.85% off late September highs.

  • USD/INR first got close to 82.00 in late September (28th), so resistance to fresh weakness has not lasted that long (a little over a week). In contrast we first probed above 80.00 near the middle of July but didn't make a definitive break above this level until the 22nd of September, see the chart below.
  • Implied vols are pushing higher, but not dramatically so. The 1 month is at 7.30%, below late September highs close to 8%.
  • The domestic data calendar is quiet until next Wednesday when IP and CPI figures print.

Fig 1: Spot USD/INR Trend

Keep reading...Show less