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Breakeven-Concentrated Rally Provides Minimal Boost For Equities

US TSYS
  • As noted above, cash Tsys have shrugged off the 2Y auction tailing by 1.1bp (largest since May), with further 5Y supply to come at the top of the hour.
  • It leaves cash Tsys trading 3-4.5bp richer across the curve, currently led by 7-10Y tenors, although the adjustment is being carried by breakevens (10Y -3bp) with a more muted decline in real yield (-1.5bps) offering less of a tailwind for equities (TYZ3 is off overnight lows but still -0.1% below Friday’s early close).
  • Breakeven levels are starting to be of greater note, having last seen sustained levels for the 10Y at 2.25% back in July.
  • TYZ3 has recently touched a new session high of 108-26, playing to the bullish trend structure for a step back closer to resistance at the bull trigger of 109-08+ (Nov 17/22 high).
  • The day’s rally remains EGB-led (Bunds -9.5bps, 10Y BTPs -11bps), whilst a paring of WTI losses has been partly offset by softer than expected lower tier data in new home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity.

US 10Y BreakevenSource: Bloomberg

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