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OIL: Brent 2025 Forecast Raised to $75/bbl as Surplus Revised Lower: BofA

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US sanctions on Russia have slashed Bank of America’s expectations of market surplus in 2025, Bloomberg reports.

  • Bank of America currently expects oversupply of just 100,000 bpd in 2025, down from prior expectations of a 750,000 bpd surplus this year.
  • “The disruptions to Russian supplies and the hawkish tone on Iran and Venezuela will likely prevent a big oil-inventory build”, a BofA analyst wrote. BofA also pointed towards OPEC+’s decision in December to delay production increases as having helped balance the markets.
  • BofA expects Brent to average $75/bbl this year. This is an upgrade from the bank’s $65/bbl forecast made in December 2024.
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US sanctions on Russia have slashed Bank of America’s expectations of market surplus in 2025, Bloomberg reports.

  • Bank of America currently expects oversupply of just 100,000 bpd in 2025, down from prior expectations of a 750,000 bpd surplus this year.
  • “The disruptions to Russian supplies and the hawkish tone on Iran and Venezuela will likely prevent a big oil-inventory build”, a BofA analyst wrote. BofA also pointed towards OPEC+’s decision in December to delay production increases as having helped balance the markets.
  • BofA expects Brent to average $75/bbl this year. This is an upgrade from the bank’s $65/bbl forecast made in December 2024.