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Brent Crude Fair Value Increased to 95$/bbl: Bloomberg Intelligence


The fair value of Brent has been increased to about 95$/bbl according to the Bloomberg Intelligence proprietary model from 90$/bbl on Sept 8.

  • The increase is driven by higher geopolitical risk premiums from the Israel-Hamas war while the market remains tight in 4Q due to constrained OPEC+ supply.
  • The three Bloomberg scenarios see prices from 90$/bbl to 105$/bbl despite persistent concerns about a global economic slowdown and a stuttering recovery in China.
  • The model suggests inflation expectations and refining margins are also key drivers of the crude price.
  • Price volatility may remain elevated while stimulus plans in China and a substantial drawdown of inventories could also be supportive.
  • Beyond the short term suggests strong fundamentals from years of underinvestment in new production and concerns about real OPEC+ spare capacity.

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