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BREXIT TURBULENCE

GILT SUMMARY

Gilts have rallied sharply today and the curve has bull flattened. Brexit negotiations are becoming increasingly acrimonious following the UK government's proposed new legislation which risks undermining elements of the Withdrawal Agreement. The head of the UK government's legal department has quit in response to the new proposals.

  • The Dec-20 gilt future trades at 136.53, near the top of the day's range (L:135.73 / H: 136.71).
  • Cash yields are now 5-9bp lower on the day with the 2s30s spread 3bp narrower.
  • Last yields: 2-year -0.1410%, 5-year -0.1111%, 10-year 0.1855%, 30-year 0.7475%.
  • The short sterling futures strip has flattened with whites/reds up 1.0-4.0 ticks and greens/blues up 4.0-5.5 ticks.
  • Looking ahead, Friday sees the release of monthly GDP, industrial production, construction output, index of services and trade data for July.
  • This week's ECB is unlikely to yield any new policy innovations and is unlikely to spillover to gilts.
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