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Brief Post-Auction Support, Fed Speak Remains Hawkish, Strong 5Y Sale

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures weaker, near late session lows after bounce on strong 5Y note auction (4.659% vs. 4.672% WI) proved short lived. Dec'23 10Y futures through technical support to 107-15.5 (-20), puts focus on 107-05+ 1.382 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing.
  • Curves bear steepening again, 3M10Y +8.096 to -87.514, 2Y10Y +6.767 at -52.175 (steepest since mid-May 2023).
  • Rates actually extended highs after Core durable goods orders came out stronger than expected in August preliminary data, rising 0.9% M/M (cons 0.1) but with the gloss taken off by a sizeable downward revision to -0.4% M/M (initial 0.1) in July.
  • Little (or perhaps a delayed) reaction to MN Fed President Kashkari making the rounds again this morning (CNN, CNBC), reprising higher for long stance if inflation persists: "holding rates through 2024" (despite dots showing a cut next year).
  • Cross asset summary: Greenback near highs (DXY +.426 at 106.657), Gold weaker (-24.5 at 1876.15), crude broadly higher (WTI +3.40 at 93.79) and stocks bounced after Senate Leader McConnell headlines re: avoiding a Govt shutdown: DJIA is down DJIA is down 56.82 points (-0.17%) at 33564.46, S&P E-Mini Future down 0.25 points (-0.01%) at 4315.25, Nasdaq up 27.7 points (0.2%) at 13092.47.
  • Thursday focus: Weekly Claims, GDP, PCE, Fed Speakers inclding Chairman Powell, 7Y Note Sale.

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