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BRAZIL: BRL Consolidating Strong 3% Advance This Week, BCB Next Week

BRAZIL
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • The Brazilian real is currently hovering close to the week’s best levels, having rallied over 3% this week. In an exclusive interview with MNI, former economic advisor to the Ministry of Planning and Budget Eduardo Velho said the recent appreciation is temporary and will not be enough to curb inflation unless the government implements fiscal measures to improve the public debt outlook.
  • Despite the relatively low monthly print (dragged by electricity prices due to the Itaipu bonus), Itaú note the IPCA-15 came in above expectations in January and with a worse-than-expected breakdown.
  • They highlight the upward surprise in underlying services and believe that today’s print underscores the worsening trend in core inflation, which will likely remain under pressure in the coming months.
  • Monday’s docket will be highlighted by the usual BCB Focus survey of economists. On Wednesday, the Copom will almost certainly hike the Selic rate by 100bps, as per the latest guidance in the December statement.
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  • The Brazilian real is currently hovering close to the week’s best levels, having rallied over 3% this week. In an exclusive interview with MNI, former economic advisor to the Ministry of Planning and Budget Eduardo Velho said the recent appreciation is temporary and will not be enough to curb inflation unless the government implements fiscal measures to improve the public debt outlook.
  • Despite the relatively low monthly print (dragged by electricity prices due to the Itaipu bonus), Itaú note the IPCA-15 came in above expectations in January and with a worse-than-expected breakdown.
  • They highlight the upward surprise in underlying services and believe that today’s print underscores the worsening trend in core inflation, which will likely remain under pressure in the coming months.
  • Monday’s docket will be highlighted by the usual BCB Focus survey of economists. On Wednesday, the Copom will almost certainly hike the Selic rate by 100bps, as per the latest guidance in the December statement.