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BRL May Be Negatively Impacted By Poorer Risk Sentiment AT Open

BRAZIL
  • The greenback is benefitting from renewed global growth concerns on Friday, prompted by poorer flash PMI data across Europe that have dented risk sentiment. As such, higher beta currencies have struggled such as the antipodeans as well as the expected weakness for the Euro.
  • The Mexican peso is also trading on the back foot; however, losses have remained contained to just 0.4% so far. BRL would be expected to join this negative sentiment at the open, especially amid a weaker commodity complex, potentially testing the most recent upward momentum for the Brazilian real.
  • Concerns regarding growth are sure to strengthen the administration’s desire to commence the easing cycle in Brazil. On Thursday, finance minister Haddad displayed his displeasure with the most recent BCB statement citing the lack of explicit signalling of cuts as ‘very bad’. For reference, the front-end of the DI curve is pricing in a Selic drop of ~24bps in August. There are no tier-one data releases in Brazil on Friday, with market participants keeping an eye on the preliminary text on a tax reform report presented by bill’s rapporteur Aguinaldo Ribeiro.
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