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BRL/MXN Declines 1.36%, Breaches 2023 Lows

LATAM
  • The aforementioned regional divergence has prompted a considerable 1.36% decline in BRLMXN today. A steady grind lower for the cross since late October has now culminated in the cross breaching the 2023 lows situated at 3.3840, with downside momentum potentially being exacerbated on the break.
  • Despite the lack of meaningful technical supports for BRLMXN, the cross could be at a somewhat interesting inflection point over coming sessions as both USDMXN and USDBRL trade close to their key support and resistance levels respectively. A lighter domestic docket for Mexico next week is trumped by Brazilian IPCA inflation data for February, scheduled next Tuesday.
  • The renewed MXN resilience comes as we approach the second Banxico meeting of the year. Mexico's central bank is set to discuss not only whether to initiate an interest rate-cutting cycle on March 21, but also how to communicate further steps, MNI understands. The central bank is focused on delivering forward guidance that anchors expectations in the right direction while preserving room for manoeuvre in monetary policy.

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