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BRL Struggling Amid Uncertain Political Backdrop

BRAZIL
  • Website UOL reported on Monday that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was involved in a scheme to skim salaries of his aides while a federal deputy. (NP)
  • This comes after the Supreme Court authorized an investigation of Bolsonaro over the procurement process for an Indian COVID-19 vaccine.
  • Recent political developments, including the downward trajectory of the president's approval rating (34%, down from 44% in February) have had a negative knock-on effect to the currency.
  • USDBRL has now rallied roughly 4% off the lows and is approaching near-term resistance is at 5.1386, Jun 11 high.
  • While gains are still considered corrective, the political backdrop presents an ongoing obstacle for local assets to navigate.
  • Retail Sales for May will be published tomorrow, however, June IPCA inflation headlines the docket on Thursday. The annual figure is expected to rise to 8.4% according to Bloomberg estimates.
  • Yesterday, the central bank's focus survey continued the upward revisions to the Selic rate forecast with economists raising their 2022 Selic forecast to 6.75% vs 6.50%.

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