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BRLMXN Deterioration Highlights Short-Term Divergence

LATAM
  • BRLMXN is currently down 1.56% for the session and the recent divergence of sentiment has been exacerbated by a technical break below 3.70, coinciding with the August and May 2021 lows.
  • Renewed fiscal anxieties in Brazil, thwarting the intervention efforts of the central bank, have kept the Brazilian real firmly on the back foot, in contrast to some moves in other emerging market FX.
  • Notably, USDCNH breaking to fresh multi-month lows may give credence for some renewed appetite for EMFX.
  • With details of AMLO's electricity reform bill likely to drag over until at least December and any potential complications to the USMCA agreement uncertain at present, MXN will likely be driven by broader risk-sentiment in the short-term.
  • On the contrary, with fiscal uncertainties at the forefront of the newsfeeds, the potential for an extension lower in BRLMXN may be slightly enhanced.
  • Following this break of 3.70, the pair has immediately hit the first target at 3.65 (76.4% retracement taken from the 2021 low-high). Further weakness will turn the focus to 3.50 and the 2021 lows

MNI/Bloomberg

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