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OIL: Brnet Crude Holds Near Highest Since July

OIL
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Brent crude is holding near the highest since July with support from supply concern due to US sanctions on Russia and after a larger than expected draw in US crude inventories. A weaker USD following CPI data and further potential Fed rate cuts this year is also supportive. A Gaza ceasefire deal could help ease risks as Middle East tensions ease.

  • The sanctions may take some time to be fully in place, but buyers are already increasing interest in alternative non-sanctioned barrels. Shipments are also idling at sea at ports in China as port owners are now wary of taking Russian deliveries.
  • The IEA has revised its global oil surplus lower for 2025 citing a combination of supply risks from the sanctions and stronger demand.
  • OPEC MOMR maintained a global oil demand growth forecast at 1.45mb/d in 2025 driven by India and China.
  • EIA yesterday showed US crude inventories fell more than expected with a large rebound in exports and small dip in production for a fifth week. The fall is despite a larger than expected drop in refinery runs to 91.7% while Cushing stocks recovered slightly but remain well below the previous five year range.
  • Gasoline cracks have softened after another US inventory build and despite the halt to Line 1 of the Colonial Pipeline through to Friday.
    • Brent MAR 25 up 0.3% at 82.27$/bbl
    • WTI FEB 25 up 0.4% at 80.36$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent up 0.08$/bbl at -3.26$/bbl
    • Brent MAR 25-APR 25 up 0.07$/bbl at 1.44$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.15$/bbl at 3.89$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 10.56$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 30.05$/bbl
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Brent crude is holding near the highest since July with support from supply concern due to US sanctions on Russia and after a larger than expected draw in US crude inventories. A weaker USD following CPI data and further potential Fed rate cuts this year is also supportive. A Gaza ceasefire deal could help ease risks as Middle East tensions ease.

  • The sanctions may take some time to be fully in place, but buyers are already increasing interest in alternative non-sanctioned barrels. Shipments are also idling at sea at ports in China as port owners are now wary of taking Russian deliveries.
  • The IEA has revised its global oil surplus lower for 2025 citing a combination of supply risks from the sanctions and stronger demand.
  • OPEC MOMR maintained a global oil demand growth forecast at 1.45mb/d in 2025 driven by India and China.
  • EIA yesterday showed US crude inventories fell more than expected with a large rebound in exports and small dip in production for a fifth week. The fall is despite a larger than expected drop in refinery runs to 91.7% while Cushing stocks recovered slightly but remain well below the previous five year range.
  • Gasoline cracks have softened after another US inventory build and despite the halt to Line 1 of the Colonial Pipeline through to Friday.
    • Brent MAR 25 up 0.3% at 82.27$/bbl
    • WTI FEB 25 up 0.4% at 80.36$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent up 0.08$/bbl at -3.26$/bbl
    • Brent MAR 25-APR 25 up 0.07$/bbl at 1.44$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.15$/bbl at 3.89$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 10.56$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 30.05$/bbl