MNI BRIEF: BOE Rate Cut Closer But Still Some Way Off - Pill

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 23

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: Kaplan Says Loose Fiscal Is Holding Up Cut

MNI BRIEF: Hungary Central Bank Cuts To 7.75% As Expected

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Tues; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1059 Tues; -5.03% Y/Y

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, GR Synd; DE Auction Wednesday

Tax Revenue Tracking Around E10bln Lower than YTD Forecast (2/2)

Tax Revenue Tracking Around E10bln Lower than YTD Forecast (1/2)

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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Broad Based Bank Share Selling Underpins Tsys

US TSYS
Front month Tsys futures extending session highs for the third time since the open as broad based selling in domestic and foreign bank stocks returns despite moves to backstop (FRC, CS) over the last couple days.
  • Top underperformers at the moment: FRC -20.7%, CMA -7.1%, KEY -6.5%, TFC -5.7%, PNC -5.45%. Financials sector -3.03%, weighing on SPX eminis: at 3950 -44.5, still above first support of 3839.25, March 13 low.
  • Short end outperforming (TUM3 taps 103-19 high +12.12, 2Y yield 3.9354% low), yield curves bull steepening off deeper inverted levels, 2s10s tapped -54.877 high recently vs. -66.886 overnight low.
  • As has been the case since Silicone Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapse, short end rates are back to pricing in looser policy expectations, implied pricing of rate cuts moving back toward midyear again.
  • Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 at 16.6bp (-2.4bp from this morning), May'23 cumulative 26.5bp (-8.6bp) to 4.837%, Jun'23 11.2bp (-13.2bp) to 4.689%.
  • Implied cut for Jul'23 at -15.2bp to 4.423%, Sep'23 cumulative of -35.3 to 4.224%; peak Fed terminal rate has fallen to 4.83% for May'23 vs. 4.920% earlier.
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