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Broad-Based Deceleration Of Inflation In March

ARGENTINA
  • Data late on Friday confirmed that CPI inflation rose to 287.9% y/y in March, from 276.2%, slightly below the 291.8% consensus. In m/m terms, the 11.0% increase last month also surprised market expectations slightly to the downside, representing a slowdown from +13.2% m/m in February and 20.6% m/m in January.
  • JP Morgan note that underlying CPI, both core and ex-food core printed back at single digits, adding that the deceleration in inflation proved broad-based, spearheaded by food. As a result, JPM have trimmed their CPI forecast, with inflation dropping to an average of 9% m/m in Q2 and 6% m/m average in 2H24. Following the data, BCRA eased monetary conditions with a further cut in the policy rate to 70%, from 80%. It also started to unwind restrictions for access to the official FX market for SMEs.
  • Going forward, JPM expect the bulk of the tariff adjustments to be front-loaded in 1H24, followed by a gradual release of capital controls starting in early 3Q24, amid a successful fiscal consolidation effort and reserves replenishment. They also note that the BCRA will need to offer positive real rates to support peso demand and anchor inflation expectations ahead.
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