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Broad Dollar Strength Extending, Goldman Sachs Revise USDCOP Forecasts

COLOMBIA
  • Broad greenback strength following the above-estimate US Empire Manufacturing data has extended across global markets on Monday. The USD Index (DXY) has now traded back above 102 which marked the 23.6% retracement of the mid-March - April downleg.
  • The building momentum in the USD’s recovery from Friday is filtering through to LatAm currencies to start the week, with BRL and CLP feeling the pinch and falling around 0.80%, with MXN closely behind declining over half a percent. COP and PEN are remaining more resilient.
  • For the Colombian Peso, we noted earlier that Goldman Sachs highlighted the friendlier backdrop for COP. The note in particular that headline noise has decreased and, after facing legislative and political setbacks, the blueprint for the pension reform has improved relative to President Petro’s original campaign plan. As such, GS are marking-to-market their USD/COP forecasts lower to 4500, 4400, 4400 in 3-, 6- and 12-month respectively (versus 5000, 4900, 4600 previously).
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