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Broad JPY Strength As Equities Give Up Gains

FOREX
  • The Japanese Yen firmed to start the week as US equity indices gave back earlier gains and risk sentiment soured, evident by the large move lower in crude futures.
  • The European session had been characterised by a slightly softer greenback. USDJPY (-0.42%) extended this weakness, resting just 20 pips shy of the July lows of 109.07.
  • The Canadian dollar traded heavily with the oil move, however G10FX lacked any momentum in a lacklustre Monday session. CADJPY had the most notable swing, retreating 0.7%.
  • Despite the souring sentiment, potentially fuelled by an uptick in geopolitical risk stemming from headlines concerning Iran and Russia, there were significant moves higher for some emerging market currencies. USDTRY and USDZAR both receded over 1% while the Brazilian Real advanced 1.35%, retracing a good portion of Friday's move lower.
  • Additionally, the Australian Dollar was resilient, rising 0.3% to $0.7365. This comes ahead of the RBA rate decision/statement due overnight where markets will likely see the RBA reneging on its previously outlined tapering move before it goes into play.
  • The trend outlook is unchanged and bearish for AUDUSD. This follows the recent breach of a channel base drawn from the Feb 25 high, signalling potential for 0.7235 next, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.7429, Jul 19 high.
  • Spanish unemployment due tomorrow before US factory orders. Then Fed Gov Bowman due to deliver opening remarks at a webinar hosted by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

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