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Free AccessBroader Caution Remains, NZD Draws Further Support From OCR Hike Bets
The yen garnered some more strength, building on its Tuesday gains, as a degree of risk aversion lingered on. USD/JPY slipped into the Tokyo fix but trimmed losses after a failure to stage a convincing break under Jun 30 low of Y110.42. Looking ahead, there is $1.1bn worth of USD/JPY options with strikes at Y111.00 rolling off today, with a further $1.1bn of USD calls with strikes at Y111.50 also due to expire at the NY cut.
- High-betas underperformed in risk-off trade, as crude oil remained heavy. AUD/JPY extended losses to a two-week low. In Australia, NSW Premier Berejiklian confirmed that Sydney's lockdown will be extended by at least one week.
- NZD bucked the trend and blipped higher in early Asia-Pac hours, as Westpac brought forward their forecast of the first OCR hike to November this year from August 2022.
- ANZ quickly followed suit, which means the whole Big Four now expects the RBNZ to raise the OCR this autumn. The implied odds of a hike by the November meeting ticked higher (per BBG WIRP tool) after yesterday's sizeable post-QSBO jump.
- FOMC Jun MonPol meeting minutes, German & Norwegian industrial output data, Italian retail sales as well as comments from Fed's Bostic & Riksbank's Ohlsson are on the radar today.
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.