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BSP Decision In Focus


Spot USD/PHP has been rangebound and last trades -0.002 at PHP47.820, as a downbeat Q1 GDP report released yesterday has seemingly been digested. Bears look for a dip through May 10 low of PHP47.793, towards the 76.4% retracement of the YtD rally/Feb 16 low at PHP47.751/47.721. Bulls look for a move through May 5 high of PHP48.133.

  • Philippine Q1 GDP report indicated a deeper contraction than expected, as the economy shrank 4.2% Y/Y (vs. BBG est. of a 3.2% dip) after an 8.3% fall in the previous quarter. Economic recovery struggled to pick up as the Philippines continues to battle the resurgence of Covid-19.
  • BSP will deliver their latest monetary policy decision later today. Policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates on hold, according to BBG poll of analysts, with the lone dissenter calling for a 25bp cut. We have also forecast a stand-pat decision.
  • USD/PHP overnight implied vol has risen to 4.40%, the highest level since late Apr. 1-month implied vol remains subdued at 3.84%, hovering just above 2.5-month lows.
  • USD/PHP 1-month NDF sits -0.030 at PHP47.990. A break below PHP47.840, which limited losses Monday, would reinstate bearish momentum. Conversely, a jump above yesterday's high of PHP48.070 would clear the way to May 5 high of PHP48.260.

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