Budget Primer: Shaping The Future

The federal budget will hit today, likely around 19:30 Canberra time, with the bulk of the sell side pencilling in an underlying cash deficit for FY20/21 at A$220-240bn (~11.0-12.5% of GDP) vs. the benchmark A$184.5bn from the JEFU (press reports have pointed to A$210bn). Further out is pure guesswork given the current backdrop.

• Focus will be on support for jobs, infrastructure & manufacturing as the gov't looks to shape the future of the economy. This should include a roll forward of the tax cuts slated for July '22 (~A$15bn in value terms) consensus looking for a pull forward to July '21. Consensus looks for no movement in the income tax measures tabled for July '24 (although press reports suggest otherwise). The JobKeeper/Seeker schemes boosted household incomes in Q2, as savings rates soared, boding well for tax receipts, as does the uptick in iron ore prices vs. gov't forecasts. The Jobs schemes could see further re-design.
• The AOFM set a gross borrowing target of A$240bn for the current FY in July, which is set to rise. The AOFM hasn't witnessed any funding difficulties, despite record borrowing requirements/auction sizes. ACGB syndications have seen record order books/issuance size, with foreign investors happy to up their exposure to Australia's AAA debt, meaning the AOFM runs well ahead of pro-rata schedule. The AOFM update will come on Wednesday.