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Close To 50-Day MA, US CPI In Focus

GOLD

Gold has drifted lower, meeting resistance above $1790, last tracking at $1786. This is below the 50-day MA, which comes in at $1786.7, which continues to be a near term resistance point. Having said that, gold is holding most of its overnight gains, we are comfortably +$10 above lows from yesterday.

  • Gold got a boost from weaker USD sentiment overnight, as the DXY corrected lower. US real yields edged down overnight as well, back to +29bps. Today nominal US yields have been fairly steady.
  • Tomorrow's US CPI print shapes up as a key event risk for the precious metal this week. Recent upside surprises in inflation have coincided with sharp downside moves in gold.
  • Such event risk may keep us range bound to a degree in terms of spot prices.
  • The position slate is arguably cleaner compared to earlier in the year. CFTC positioning has only nudged back into a net long, after dipping into negative territory in late July. Still, ETF positioning in gold continues to trend lower.
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Gold has drifted lower, meeting resistance above $1790, last tracking at $1786. This is below the 50-day MA, which comes in at $1786.7, which continues to be a near term resistance point. Having said that, gold is holding most of its overnight gains, we are comfortably +$10 above lows from yesterday.

  • Gold got a boost from weaker USD sentiment overnight, as the DXY corrected lower. US real yields edged down overnight as well, back to +29bps. Today nominal US yields have been fairly steady.
  • Tomorrow's US CPI print shapes up as a key event risk for the precious metal this week. Recent upside surprises in inflation have coincided with sharp downside moves in gold.
  • Such event risk may keep us range bound to a degree in terms of spot prices.
  • The position slate is arguably cleaner compared to earlier in the year. CFTC positioning has only nudged back into a net long, after dipping into negative territory in late July. Still, ETF positioning in gold continues to trend lower.