Free Trial

Bull Flatter Ahead Of FOMC, First Cut In Dec

US TSYS
  • Treasuries see a light bid in recent trading as the FOMC decision approaches.
  • It doesn’t notably change the trimming of earlier gains seen after data including ADP, ISM mfg & JOLTS plus no major surprises in the QRA.
  • The paring of gains is more pronounced at the front end, leaving cash yields 2-4.5bp lower on the day for a bull flattening with 2s10s at -36.5bps.
  • TYM4 sits at 107-21+ having largely moved sideways since data were digested. It’s off a high of 107-26 seen with JOLTS and ISM mfg at 1000ET in a move that remained within yesterday’s range.
  • Resistance is seen at 108-11 (20-day EMA) but with the trend needle pointing south and support at 107-04 (Apr 25 low).
  • Fed Funds implied rates show a cumulative 13bp of cuts for Sept, 19bp for Nov and 29bp for Dec.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.