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Bull steepening and retracing yesterday's moves

BONDS

Core fixed income has been moving higher this morning, reversing some of yesterday's losses (but remaining within yesterday's trading range). The moves have been led by a repricing of near-term rate expectations with curves bull steepening. SONIA futures have led the moves higher (and gilts have led the German and UST curves). The larger moves in UK markets are in response to retracing yesterday's larger moves.

  • This morning's data has focused on confidence data - with both French confidence data and the German IFO coming in higher-than-expected. However, this has not been enough to have any discernable impact on markets. The data later today is centered on the US - with the second print of Q2 GDP due for release alongside jobless claims. We will also receive the Accounts of the July ECB meeting, which saw the 50bp hike (against prior communications of 25bp).
  • TY1 futures are up 0-4+ today at 117-12+ with 10y UST yields down -2.6bp at 3.081% and 2y yields down -3.8bp at 3.354%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.49 today at 150.75 with 10y Bund yields down -3.6bp at 1.331% and Schatz yields down -5.2bp at 0.857%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.47 today at 111.16 with 10y yields down -6.6bp at 2.629% and 2y yields down -8.9bp at 2.828%.

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