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Bull Steepening As Hike Pricing Pulls Back From Extremes

US TSYS

Treasury yields have retreated from Monday's highs, but remain well above levels at the start of the week.

  • The curve has steepened with the front end outperforming as Fed rate hike expectations pull back from extremes. Total hikes priced by end-2022: 277bp, a few bps lower than late Monday, but 12bp below overnight highs. 75bp hikes in Jun and Jul are still roughly fully priced though.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 7.2bps at 3.2819%, 5-Yr is down 6.9bps at 3.4135%, 10-Yr is down 6.5bps at 3.2952%, and 30-Yr is down 5.1bps at 3.2967%.
  • The market tone remains cautious. The USD has held Monday's gains, while stock futures have faded most of the Asia-Pac rebound.
  • Main item on the calendar aside from the beginning of the 2-day FOMC meeting is May PPI (0830ET), which could have implications for the Fed's perceptions of inflationary pressures.
  • We'll be publishing a short update to our Fed preview to account for late Monday's developments.
  • Earlier, May NFIB Small Business Optimism came in line w expectations (93.1 vs 93.0 survey).
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