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Bull Steeper Ahead Of Washington Stagflation Watch

US TSYS

The Tsy curve has bull steepened overnight amid a renewed bout of risk-off, recession-fearing trade: the 2-Yr yield is down 7.1bps at 3.1255%, 5-Yr is down 7.2bps at 3.2915%, 10-Yr is down 5.5bps at 3.2201%, and 30-Yr is down 3.7bps at 3.3004%.

  • A sharp drop in oil prices overnight, triggered in part on global growth concerns, has helped drag on yields (and equities). In related news, Pres Biden is set to ask Congress to suspend the Federal fuel tax; he speaks at 1400ET.
  • With a schedule largely devoid of data (0700ET sees weekly MBA mortgage applications), focus will be on supply and Fed speakers.
  • Foremost among the latter is Chair Powell's semi-annual Congressional testimony which will begin in the Senate at 0930ET. For the last hearings in March, Powell's testimony text was published at 0830ET for a 1000ET appearance.
  • We also get a few more appearances by Richmond Fed's Barkin (0900ET, 1200ET, 1330ET), and the first post-FOMC comments from Chicago's Evans (1250ET) and Philly's Harker (at 1330ET alongside Barkin).
  • $14B 20Y Bond auction re-open at 1300ET highlights the supply calendar; $22B in 2Y FRNs sell at 1130ET.
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