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Bull Steeper As Powell Describes 75bp Hikes As "Unusually Large"

US TSYS

Treasury markets took a dovish interpretation from June's FOMC meeting, with diminished rate hike pricing for the July meeting and a decision (+75bp) and Dot Plot that were in line with expectations.

  • The curve flattened sharply a minute or two after the FOMC decision was released, with 2s10s temporarily going negative.
  • But ultimately it resolved much steeper as Fed rate hike pricing pared back during Powell's press conference.
  • The main trigger to this was Powell's comment early in the presser that the next meeting in July could bring a 50 or 75bp hike - and that a 75bp hike was unusually large and that he didn't expect them to be common.
  • 2-Yr yield is down 21.3bps at 3.2138%, 5-Yr is down 20.1bps at 3.3858%, 10-Yr is down 17bps at 3.3029%, and 30-Yr is down 8.9bps at 3.3353%.
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