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Bull Steeper In A Light Paring Of Retail Sales Inspired Lows

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade 0.5-3.5bp richer, with the front end leading the rally for a modest bull steepening after yesterday’s significant bear flattening. It leaves 2s10s at -23.5bps, vs yesterday’s low of -26.7bps having pulled back from recent highs earlier in the week of -15bps.
  • TYH4 at 111-17+ is off the earlier high of 111-21 but has nevertheless drifted higher from yesterday’s retail sales inspired low of 111-09. Support is watched, seen at 111-06+ (Jan 5 low) as a bearish indicator. Volumes are solid at 340k.
  • Weekly claims are in focus for data, with initial claims just about linking with a payrolls reference week, with perhaps added focus on the Philly Fed manufacturing index after the particularly large slump in the Empire on Tue. The reaction to retail sales suggests continued sensitivity to any surprises in data across the board.
  • Data: Weekly claims (0830ET), Building permits/housing starts Dec (0830ET), Philly Fed mfg Jan (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Bostic (’24 voter) on economic outlook at 0730ET (brief remarks, Q&A) and 1205ET (text, no Q&A)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $18B 10Y TIPS (1300ET)
  • Bills issuance: US Tsy $85B 4W, $85B 8W Bill auctions (1130ET)
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