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Bullard: Markets Under-pricing ‘Higher For Longer’ Rates

FED
  • Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Bullard (’22 voter) reiterated his desire to see rates at 3.75-4% by year-end but added that more front-loading sooner is better whilst leaning more strongly to a 75bp hike at the Sep 21 FOMC decision.
  • Fed Funds futures have the effective rate going to 3.81% in Dec and a terminal hovering between 3.90-3.95% at the Mar’23 meeting, but a cooling to circa 3.5% by end’23 continues to be pushed back against by Fed members.
  • Prior to Bullard, latest examples have included Evans (’23 voter) expecting to top at 4% “before too long” before pausing whilst George (’22) – who speaks at 1200ET – said Aug 25 that it’s not out of the question that the Fed would hold rates above 4%.
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