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Bund Rally Tempered by Better-Than-Expected IFO

GERMANY

The rally across Bund futures stalls as IFO beats forecast, leaving today's high of 150.87 shy of the first resistance at 151.03 (contract printed 150.06 at yesterday's high). Today's bounce through the open remains insufficient to switch the near-term outlook, which holds bearish for now. Weakness this week has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. This marked a key support area and the clear break has strengthened bearish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation lower.


While the IFO release beat the already-modest expectations, IFO economist notes that

  • A recession is still on the cards
  • Sentiment on trade is really poor and burdened by high inflation
  • Good news is that supply chain bottlenecks have eased significantly
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