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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessBund Sell-Off Reaches New Lows, Consumer Confidence Weaker Than Consensus
The weaker-than-expected Eurozone consumer confidence data has done little to reduce pressure on EGBs, with Bunds currently close to intraday lows at 133.93 (-54 ticks on the day). The first support remains 133.71 (Jan 19 low).
- Headline flow has generally been light, with the continued uptick in crude oil futures a potential driver for the latest leg lower.
- EC consumer confidence was -16.1 (vs -14.3 cons, -15.1 prior).
- A reminder that order books for today's dual tranche EU-bond syndication was the second highest on record at E180bln, continuing this year's trend of strong syndication demand. This added to bond sale total across January - which has now topped E293bln - the busiest January ever, according to Bloomberg data.
- Periphery spreads remain wider to Bunds on the day.
- The Euribor strip has been happy to track global core FI moves, currently -0.5 to -5.0 ticks, with Blues under the most pressure. ECB-dated OIS contracts currently price around 131bps of rate cuts through 2024.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jan-24 | 3.907 | 0.47 |
Mar-24 | 3.870 | -3.2 |
Apr-24 | 3.749 | -15.3 |
Jun-24 | 3.465 | -43.7 |
Jul-24 | 3.223 | -67.9 |
Sep-24 | 2.974 | -92.8 |
Oct-24 | 2.785 | -111.7 |
Dec-24 | 2.597 | -130.5 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.