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Bunds outperform

BONDS
  • Bunds are the outperformers in core fixed income space this morning. There are no specific headlines driving the moves, but markets are looking at fundamentals and concerned that the outlook for the eurozone looks particularly precarious at present.
  • Gilts on the other hand are actually a bit lower on the day, with some of the adjustments following PM Johnson's resignation continuing to reverberate around sterling markets. There is focus today on a slightly more expansionary fiscal policy outlook (which would to some extent lead to a tighter monetary policy outlook).
  • US Treasuries have seen the smallest moves, as the market looks ahead to today's employment report. We expect there to be only small changes to expectations for the July meeting (unless there is a very large surprise), but expectations further out the curve are two-way given recent market moves.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-7 today at 118-15+ with 10y UST yields down -0.6bp at 2.991% and 2y yields up 0.4bp at 3.021%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.27 today at 150.82 with 10y Bund yields down -3.8bp at 1.276% and Schatz yields down -6.6bp at 0.472%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.34 today at 115.14 with 10y yields up 1.6bp at 2.142% and 2y yields up 2.1bp at 1.819%.
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