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Bunds Reverse Earlier Declines

EGBS

As just noted, Bunds have found a bid alongside US Tsys after initially seeing some weakness as German fiscal headlines filtered through around lunch time

  • Comments from German Chancellor Scholz indicated that a suspension of the 2024 debt brake was still "possible" under certain circumstances e.g. the need to provide further support for Ukraine, keeping questions re: ’24 fiscal spending/related Bund issuance alive.
  • Additionally, some analysts haven noted a degree of uncertainty re: the latest announcement's compliance with the debt brake's 0.35% structural deficit/GDP allowance.
  • Bunds fell almost 30 ticks from today's best levels but found a base at 135.33 - well above the first support of 133.91 (Dec 4 low). The short-term tone in Bunds remains bullish from a technical standpoint.
  • Cash yields are now 3.5 - 5.0bps lower on the day, led by the 10Y which sees yields -5.0bps lower at 2.174%.
  • Peripheries are a touch tighter to Bunds - aided by the latest risk-positive moves in the US - with the exception of Greece.
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