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Business Sentiment Expected To Rise In June Despite High Uncertainty

CZECHIA
  • This coming week will be relatively quiet on the data for Czech Republic, with final Q1 GDP print coming out on June 29 (GDP growth expected to decrease by 2.1% YoY) and manufacturing PMI and Budget Balance coming out on July 1.
  • Market is still expecting business sentiment to continue to rise despite the high uncertainty due to Delta variant and the significant contraction in Chinese liquidity that could weigh on risky assets in the near term.
  • USDCZK has been retracing slightly higher in the past few days, gradually approaching its 100D SMA at 21.45; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 21.81 (200D SMA). On the downside, first support to watch stands at 21.13 (50D SMA).
  • Czech 10Y yield ticks slightly lower this morning after consolidating higher (by 10bps) in the past two week; resistance to watch on the topside stands at 1.72% (50D SMA), followed by 1.75% (100D SMA) and 1.80%. On the downside, ST key support stands at 1.60%.
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