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Business Sentiment On Export Improves, But Non-Manufacturing Side Falters

SOUTH KOREA

Earlier South Korean business sentiment data pointed to a mixed outlook. Manufacturing sentiment rose for November to 69 from 67. This is the first rise in the index since mid-year. In terms of the detail, the improvement was more so with large manufacturers, conditions at smaller firms deteriorated. There was a notable improvement in the export outlook. The chart below overlays this sub-index against South Korean y/y export growth. Domestic conditions were modestly softer though.

  • On the non-manufacturing there was a sharp pull back in sentiment. The headline index falling to 69 from 77.
  • This is fresh lows back to early 2021. Weakness was particularly evident in terms of sales expectations.
  • This data comes after the slightly better than expected Q3 GDP print earlier. The improving external backdrop will be welcome but signs of softer domestic conditions will be a BOK watch point.

Fig 1: South Korean Manufacturers Export Expectations & Export Growth Y/Y

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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