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Busy data day at month-end ahead of the holiday

BOND SUMMARY

After some initial Bund-led weakness on the open, cored fixed income has recovered and is now trading almost flat to yesterday's close.

  • With the US and UK on holiday on Monday, there is some focus on month-end flows today.
  • It is also a busy day on the data front. We have already had French flash HICP data (in line Y/Y at 1.8%, the highest since 2018), Spanish retail sales (better than expected) and Eurozone confidence data come in better than expected. Later today we have US personal income/spending, inventory and trade data as well as the MNI Chicago PMI.
  • This morning we also saw the release of the gilt operations calendar for FQ2 (July to Sep). For more details, see our earlier bullets.
  • ECB's Schnabel said rising yields are a "natural development at a turning point in the recovery"; Villeroy said bank dividend restrictions should be lifted from next September.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-2 today at 131-23 with 10y UST yields up 0.1bp at 1.610% and 2y yields up 0.2bp at 0.148%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.04 today at 169.75 with 10y Bund yields up 0.3bp at -0.170% and Schatz yields up 0.3bp at -0.662%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.03 today at 127.00 with 10y yields up 0.8bp at 0.817% and 2y yields up 1.1bp at 0.058%.
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