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JPMorgan: Rate Liftoff In Late 2023


Block, Red Dec'22

Busy session across CEE............>

EMERGING MARKETS: Busy session across CEE currencies
- RUB had a volatile session, weakening sharply as IFX reported on the
resignation of the Russian government, leaving President Putin to propose an
entirely new cabinet and a relatively marginal figure as PM. This may be one of
the clearer signals that intends to take over as PM, or another senior
parliamentary office, at the end of his presidential term. USD/RUB rallied to
touch 61.7915 before fading.
- The usually quiet CZK had a firm session Wednesday, rising to the best levels
against the EUR since 2012 and outperforming broader EMFX as markets continue to
speculate that the central bank will begin tightening policy. The next rate
decision is due on February 6th.
- All focus turns to central banks Thursday, with decisions due from both the
Turkish and South African central banks. Turkey are seen trimming rates further
by 75bps to 11.25% while South Africa are seen keeping policy unchanged.
Nonetheless there are some outside expectations of further easing from the SARB.
Polish inflation is the data highlight.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |