By-Elections Confirmed For 20 July; Losses Could Pile More Pressure On PM

Parliamentary by-elections in the Conservative-held constituencies of Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Selby & Ainsty have been confirmed for Thursday 20 July. Should the Conservatives lose both seats it will not materially damage the gov'ts sizeable majority in the House of Commons. However, it will likely be viewed as a sign that the opposition centre-left Labour Party remains on course to take power following the next election, which could presage more fiscal loosening on behalf of the gov't.

• The by-elections come as a result of the resignation of former PM Boris Johnson, as he opted to vacate his seat before the Commons' privileges committee published its reportinto Johnson's actions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Adams, a staunch supporter of Johnson, resigned his seat a day afterwards.
• Johnson's Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat, on the western edges of London is almost certain to return a Labour MP for the first time since 1966 with only a 7k majority to overturn and the seat's demographics trending towards Labour in recent years. Adams' Selby and Ainsty constituency in North Yorkshire is a tougher prospect for the opposition, with the Conservatives holding with a 20k majority in 2019.
• Should the Conservatives lose both seats it could see pressure rise on PM Rishi Sunak to alter the gov'ts policy course in an effort to turn around the party's flagging fortunes ahead of the next election, seen as likely in autumn 2024.