Cabinet Reshuffle Rumours Come At Difficult Time For Erdogan's AKP

Earlier we highlighted reports that speculated that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could engage in a major reshuffle of his Cabinet for the first time since 2018 (see 0916GMT bullet). The potential reshuffle comes days after the removal of the central bank governor and his replacement with a former MP for Erdogan's governing Justice and Development Party (AKP).

• The AKP is due to open its annual congress today, and a reshuffle could prove Erdogan's way of stamping his authority on gov't amidst a notable decline in polling support for him and his party.
• Earlier in March (before the CB governor's sacking), Turkey's Birgun newspaper speculated that Minister of Treasury and Finance Lutfi Elvan, Minister of Trade Ruhsar Pekcan, Minister of Agriculture and Forestry Ekrem Pakdemirli, Minister of Family, Labour and Social Services Zehra Zumrut Selcuk and Minister of Culture and Tourism Mehmet Nuri Ersoy could all be moved on in the reshuffle.
• While the next presidential election is not due until June 2023 at the latest, recent polling does not make good reading for Erdogan.
• The most likely scenario is that Erdogan and the (as yet unconfirmed) candidate from the centre-left secular Republican People's Party (CHP ) go through to a second-round run off. If the CHP selects either Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu or Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas as its candidate, polls show each man with a sizeable and consistent lead over Erdogan.