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CAD Back To Underperforming, Will Net Shorts Have Increased Even Further?

CANADA
  • Oil may be off lows but the combination of further declines today and net USD weakness sees CAD bottom of the G10 FX pack today in close competition with EUR, after the loonie climbed 0.5% on a trade-weighted basis last week.
  • USDCAD at 1.3644 is marginally higher on the day, keeping to a relatively narrow 1.362-1.366 range. Friday’s decline in the pair saw a cracking in trendline support at 1.3659, leaving the low of 1.3594 as initial support after which lies 1.3573 (1.0% 10-dma envelope).
  • Latest CFTC futures positioning for Nov 21 will be released later today as a Thanksgiving hangover. Data for Nov 14 showed consolidation of the prior week’s significant increase in CAD net shorts, at 34.2% of OI. It was just shy of the 34.6% net shorts touched in early April having last been higher in Jan’19.

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