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CAD Rate Sell-Off Extends And Outstrips SOFR Move

CANADA
  • CAD rates continue to extend new lows, with BAX futures now -0.035 for the front Sep’23, -0.055 Dec’23, -0.145 Jun’24 and -0.19 Dec’24.
  • It’s been a mostly one directional sell-off on the day as BAX futures switch to underperforming SOFR futures after lagging the sell-off until recently.
  • Headline drivers for the latest switch to underperformance are unclear, although supported by a 2.2% jump higher in the Teranet SA house price index earlier in the session as it finally follows similarly sized increases in existing home sale prices.
  • Sep-Dec’23 stands at +7.5bps, which would be the highest close since Jun 23, and the Sep’23-Dec’24 of -81.5bps is back at the Jul 12 close after US CPI missed but the BoC hiked 25bps with hawkish commentary.

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