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CAD Rates Ending Week With Soft CPI Setting The Tone

CANADA
  • CORRA futures are close to levels seen prior to retail sales, a report that had decent underlying details behind the mostly as expected January overall figure but with a tepid February advance.
  • A surprisingly soft CAD CPI report has firmly set the tone this week (a report BoC Dep Gov Gravelle saw as “very encouraging” but just “one number”) before a smaller helping hand from the FOMC.
  • Dec’24 implied yields are 19bps below pre-CPI levels whilst CORH4/Z4 shows 85bp of cuts for 2024 vs 88bps before the BoC decision early this month.
  • In the near-term, BoC-dated OIS has ~20bps of a cut priced for the June, similar prospects for the start point of cuts to those in the US.
  • Next week sees BoC Senior Dep Gov Rogers speak on “The urgent need to improve Canadian productivity” on Tue before monthly GDP for Jan/Feb advance on Thu.

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