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CAD Rates Underperform US With CPI Tomorrow

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  • BAX futures underperform US rates through to early 2024 on the day, with yields either flat or -1bp out to the Dec’23 before rallying more notably further out.
  • The curve remains heavily inverted, with a peak in the Mar’23 (at a level consistent with a policy rate of 4.25%, 50bp more hikes from current) and then falling 63.5bps to Dec’23.
  • That terminal policy rate tallies with broad analyst consensus but after that there is a wide range of views on 2023 cuts - see here - with Canadian CPI hitting tomorrow.


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  • BAX futures underperform US rates through to early 2024 on the day, with yields either flat or -1bp out to the Dec’23 before rallying more notably further out.
  • The curve remains heavily inverted, with a peak in the Mar’23 (at a level consistent with a policy rate of 4.25%, 50bp more hikes from current) and then falling 63.5bps to Dec’23.
  • That terminal policy rate tallies with broad analyst consensus but after that there is a wide range of views on 2023 cuts - see here - with Canadian CPI hitting tomorrow.