California Gov. Facing Recall With Petition Deadline Less Than A Month Away

There is now less than one month until the 17 March deadline for the submission of the 1.5mn signatures required to bring about a recall election against California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom. Supporters of the recall - which would remove Newsom from office - have claimed that the threshold for the recall has already been reached, although this has yet to be verified.

• The recall petition gathered steam in late-2020 as Gov. Newsom became the target of blame for California's high COVID-19 case and fatality totals. Public anger was compounded when it emerged Newsom had broken his own COVID-19 restrictions to attend a maskless dinner with lobbyists at a fine-dining restaurant.
• It appears likely that the threshold will be reached, resulting in the possibility that the most senior politician could be removed from office in a state that alone would stand as the world's fifth-largest economy ahead of the United Kingdom and India.
• There is a precedent for recall elections succeeding in California, with Democratic Governor Gray Davis recalled in a 2003 vote that saw Republican movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger come to office.
• This time around, though, the prospect of Newsom losing the recall election would be slimmer. California now leans overwhelmingly Democratic, with President Joe Biden carrying the state by a margin of 29%, compared to the 10% margin secured by Democrat John Kerry over George W. Bush in 2004.
• Nevertheless, a recall election comes at an inopportune time for Newsom with COVID-19 restrictions still in place, combined with a number of issues including lack of affordable housing, high taxes, mass homelessness, and significant 'culture war' issues such as the renaming of schools and Newsom's liberal policies on immigration and the death penalty raising political tensions in the state.